AI to Enable Accurate Modelling of Data Storage System Performance

Researchers at the HSE Faculty of Computer Science have developed a new approach to modelling data storage systems based on generative machine learning models. This approach makes it possible to accurately predict the key performance characteristics of such systems under various conditions. Results have been published in the IEEE Access journal.
Data storage systems play an important role in today’s digital world, as they are responsible for the safety and prompt availability of vast amounts of information. These systems consist of many components, including controllers, HDD and SSD disks, as well as cache memory, which work together to ensure fast and efficient operation. To achieve optimal performance, it is essential to accurately predict how these systems will function in different scenarios, such as when the load on the system changes.
Researchers at the HSE Faculty of Computer Science developed a new approach to modelling data storage system performance, which relies on generative machine learning models. The authors proposed a method that provides high-precision predictions of the key performance characteristics of the systems: the number of input/output operations per second (IOPS) and latency.
The modelling includes two stages. First, the scientists collect data by measuring the system’s performance under various loads and configurations. This data is then fed to two special generative models: the CatBoost regression model and the normalizing flow model. CatBoost works well with tabular data and can accurately predict average values and performance deviations. The normalizing flow model produces a complete distribution of possible outcomes, taking into account data uncertainties and variability.
Mikhail Hushchyn
‘One of the main advantages of our method is that it does not require detailed knowledge of the internal structure of the system components. This is often impossible due to the manufacturers’ trade secrets. Instead, our generative models are trained directly on real-world data. For instance, in our study, we trained a model using 300,000 measurements. This makes our approach versatile and applicable to any type of data storage system,’ says study author Mikhail Hushchyn, a senior research fellow at the HSE Faculty of Computer Science.
The researchers tested the accuracy of the proposed approach using Little's law, a fundamental principle of queuing theory. According to test results, these predictions are highly consistent with real observations: prediction errors range from just 4–10% for IOPS and 3–16% for latency, while the correlation with the observed values reaches 0.99.
Aziz Temirkhanov
‘Our proposed approach opens up broad prospects for optimising and planning the operation of data centres. It makes it possible to predict the behaviour of the system amid load changes, identify potential performance issues, and optimise power consumption. Furthermore, expensive physical experiments are no longer required for accurate modelling,’ stated Aziz Temirkhanov, a junior research fellow at the Laboratory of Methods for Big Data Analysis.
The experimental code and measurements of the storage system performance are publicly available.
The research was carried out within the Mirror Laboratories project of HSE University on improving the efficiency of data centres and data storage systems using artificial intelligence methods.
See also:
Scientists Develop Algorithm for More Reliable Processors in Data Centres
Researchers from HSE MIEM and Samara University have developed the LRF-3D algorithm to automatically bypass idle nodes in three-dimensional networks-on-chip. Thanks to its hierarchical architecture, the algorithm outperforms existing solutions in both speed and path accuracy, improving processor reliability for use in data centres, supercomputers, and AI computing. The source code and test results are publicly available.
Researchers Rank Recommendation Algorithms Using Sports Tournament Model
Researchers from the AI and Digital Science Institute at the HSE Faculty of Computer Science have developed an approach for selecting recommendation algorithms more effectively. Their approach uses pairwise comparisons of algorithms to create a tournament table, with the overall ranking based on their performance across all datasets in the tournament. This can reduce the number of algorithms that need to be tested when developing new services, saving both time and money. The study was presented at the 32nd ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD 2026).
Researchers Develop Method for Direct Generation of Regulatory DNA
Researchers at HSE University have developed a model for generating promoters and enhancers—DNA sequences that regulate gene activity. The model works directly with DNA nucleotides, without first transforming them into a continuous numerical representation. This solution could be useful for applications in synthetic biology and gene therapy. The study results were presented at the ICLR 2026 Workshop ‘Generative AI in Genomics (Gen^2): Barriers and Frontiers.’
Researchers at HSE University and Sber Train Neural Networks to Better Predict User Preferences
The HSE FCS AI and Digital Science Institute and Sber have introduced a new architecture for recommendation systems that combines two classes of models, enabling algorithms to better predict users’ interests and needs. A preprint of the paper has been published on arxiv.org and presented at Urban ML.
Physicists Discover What Happens Inside a Stable Vortex
Large vortices with characteristic spiral arms are often observed in the atmosphere and the ocean. Physicists from HSE University have explained how these structures form and why they retain their shape. The researchers found that velocities at points located along the same vortex arc remain correlated even over long distances. At the same time, this correlation weakens rapidly with increasing distance from the vortex centre. These differences help explain the formation of spiral arms and may improve models of atmospheric and oceanic currents. The findings have been published in Physical Review Fluids.
‘Working with AI Solves a Wide Range of Engineering Problems’
Artificial intelligence is a working tool based on a balanced combination of algorithms and engineering. Experts and doctoral students from the HSE Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics explain how AI technologies can improve an application, device, or system, and what engineering tasks are solved in the process.
‘The Peak of Stupidity’ and ‘The Valley of Despair’: HSE Economists Propose an Explanation for the Dunning–Kruger Effect
The Dunning–Kruger effect, which describes a sharp surge in self-confidence among beginners followed by an equally rapid decline as they gain experience, can be explained by the nature of the learning process and the acquisition of new knowledge. This conclusion was reached by Andrey Vorchik of the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences together with independent researcher Murat Mamyshev. They developed a mathematical model of learning and demonstrated how subjective confidence is formed and changes as knowledge accumulates, as well as how teachers can reduce the ‘valley of despair’ experienced by learners.
Toffee and Risk: Scientists Discover Why People Who Crave Sweets Make More Impulsive Choices
Having a sweet tooth may be linked not only to eating habits but also to the way people make decisions. Researchers at HSE University have found that people with a preference for sweet foods tend to behave more impulsively—not because they want immediate rewards, but because they are less willing to tolerate uncertainty. These findings may help improve treatments for addiction. The study findings have been published in Frontiers in Psychology.
Physicists Find a Way to Model Ion Parameters in Plasma in Seconds
Researchers from HSE University and the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT) have developed a set of simple analytical methods for calculating the properties of heavy ions in helium under the influence of a strong electric field. The new approach speeds up calculations of ion mobility and ion–molecule reaction rates by thousands of times while maintaining sufficient accuracy for plasma jet modelling. The findings have been published in the journal Physica Scripta.
A New Section on AI and a Prizewinning Paper: Early-Career HSE Researchers Take Part in IEEE EDM Conference
The 27th IEEE International Conference of Young Professionals in Electron Devices and Materials (EDM) has taken place in the Altai Republic. This year, researchers from HSE University presented the results of their research and were involved in organising a new section on artificial intelligence. A paper by HSE master’s student Rodion Sidorenko was awarded third place in the research paper competition at the conference.


