1,7
is the number of births that a woman from the generation born in the latter half of the 1980s can expect in her lifetime. This number is significantly lower than the replacement rate for the population.
This indicator is called the total fertility rate (TFR). For women born in the 1970s, the TFR is even lower at 1.6 births. To prevent the population from declining, a TFR of 2.15 births per woman is required.
These figures come from an article by Sergey Zakharov, Deputy Director of the HSE’s Institute of Demography, and Tomas Frejka, an independent consultant and demographer. The article is called ‘The Evolution of Fertility in Russia for Half a Century: The Lens of Conditional and Real Generations.’
The data obtained do not give reason to expect a significant increase in fertility, which would guarantee Russia a path to sustainable demographic development. Moreover, with the current trend, Russia is guaranteed population decline for decades (assuming no migration).
See also:
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